Gold’s bull run not over, it’s just taking a break
Commentary: Why you should expect the price gains to resume
Myra P. Saefong, MarketWatch Wall Street Journal
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — After five months of declines in gold prices, it’s still not time to call an end to gold’s bull run.
After all, the factors that contributed to gold’s fifth straight monthly decline — central-bank monetary-policy cues, economic data, currency fluctuations, asset relocation, and emerging markets — are generally the same as they’ve been for gold’s more-than-decade-long bull run.
“Many are declaring that there is no catalyst to drive gold forward,” said Jan Skoyles, head of research at The Real Asset Co., a precious-metals investment platform provider. “They’re right — the bullish drivers of gold haven’t changed at all for several years.”
“Those that pay attention to the markets know that governments embrace easy-monetary policy, they know that the euro will continue to have significant problems and they know that currency wars will continue to escalate,” she said. “That is why gold’s bearish factors, such as improved U.S. data, have greater impact on the gold prices.”
Gold futures (US:GCJ3) fell about 5% last month to tally a loss of around 11% since the end of September. See: Gold drops, notches fifth straight monthly loss.
An improvement in economic data out of the U.S., more recently positive figures on housing, has helped to dull gold’s appeal as a safe-haven investment.
‘The gold bull run is not over, it just doesn’t need to rush to wherever it’s climbing to.’- Jan Skoyles, The Real Asset Co.
Strength in the U.S. dollar, with the ICE dollar index (US:DXY) climbing more than 3% in February, also pressured gold, making the metal more expensive for holders of other currencies to buy.
But bearish factors such as those won’t necessarily succeed in ending gold’s bull run, said Skoyles.
Instead, bullish factors such as the worries over the euro, easy-money policies and currency wars “will culminate in such a way that increasing numbers of investors … will turn to look for assets which are not depreciating in value and which governments cannot meddle with,” she said. A currency war refers to a competitive currency devaluation by countries trying to ease strength in their currencies. See: How gold will benefit from a currency war.
“The gold bull run is not over, it just doesn’t need to rush to wherever it’s climbing to,” said Skoyles.
Hit hard
Still, investors can’t help but question whether gold headed for more losses after its weak performance over the last several months.
“Gold was an investment as a protection against the fear of a U.S. economic collapse, hyper inflation from the [U.S. Federal Reserve’s quantitative-easing] program as well as doubt toward the leadership in Washington,” said John Person, president of NationalFutures.com.
But the dollar’s strength “appears to be from the exodus from the euro and yen,” which shows that investors “have more confidence in the potential growth and perhaps resolve to heal the U.S. economy,” he said.
A rally in U.S. stocks has also drawn a lot of attention away from gold.
“Some of the wealth that found refuge in gold has been migrating to where the public sees performance — into equities,” said Gene Arensberg, editor of the Got Gold Report.
U.S. equities climbed last month, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (US:DJIA) gaining 1.4%. Read more in Thursday’s Market Snapshot.
“Investors and money managers seem to be willing to forget about or ignore the massive sovereign debt issues in Europe and here in the U.S.,” said Arensberg. “They have a serious case of crisis fatigue and the Fed has juiced the economy so much it really does give the illusion that things are getting better.”
However, “The U.S. stock market is a little like the sirens in Homer’s ‘The Odyssey.’ Their music sounds so sweet, but the waters are still treacherous just ahead,” he said.
That leaves gold prices stuck in its 15-month, “post parabolic peak consolidation range” of $1,525 to $1,800 an ounce, he said, “waiting on a catalyst before the 11-year secular bull market inevitably reasserts itself.”
Gold futures touched record prices above $1,900 an ounce on an intraday basis in September 2011, according to data from the CME Group (US:CME).
James Turk, founder and chairman of online bullion dealer GoldMoney, said gold “remains in the correction that began after the record high it made back in 2011.”
“No one can predict when this correction will end but when it does, I expect this bull market will take gold to a new record high above $2,000 per ounce,” he said.
On the docket
As the new month begins, gold investors will have lots to consider.
“There are several key factors driving gold higher or lower in the short term,” said Edmund Moy, chief strategist with gold-backed IRA provider Morgan Gold in Irvine, Calif. Those include “central banks becoming big buyers of gold, the series of slow train wrecks that have become hallmarks of our fiscal policy, the [European Union’s] faltering economy and retail buying from India and China.”
In February, a lack of gold purchases from China in the midst of its Lunar New Year celebrations had put a temporary drag on prices, while an election in Italy that resulted in a political gridlock renewed worries over the euro zone and raised the metal’s safe-haven appeal.
Investors will be eager to hear about the pace of Chinese buying in the following the temporary holiday slowdown as well as any musings from Europe, and further hints from the Fed about its plans for QE — so March will see much of the same influences as last month.
The steep U.S. spending cuts set to begin later Friday have also taken the spotlight of late. See: The sequester starts Friday. Then what?
And those cuts, known as the sequester, may ultimately feed a rise in gold prices.
“In all my years in DC, I have never seen such a poor relationship between Congress and the White House,” said Moy, adding that, “There is little hope for any meaningful reduction in government spending.”
“Our deficit will continue to increase the national debt, and the national debt ceiling will continue to rise,” he said. “This means that gold prices will continue to rise in the long term.”
