Gold Price Analysis- Nov. 5, 2013

Thursday, November 7, 2013 12:26:33 PM America/Toronto

By: DailyForex.com

Gold prices (XAU/USD) settled slightly higher yesterday but remained within the previous day's trading range. The XAU/USD pair seems to be trying to form a bottom since the prices bounced off of the 1306.05 level which is also the 50% retracement based on the bullish run from 1251.60 to 1361.76. For a long time the gold market participants have been speculating that the Federal Reserve will begin reducing its bond-buying program and end it in 2014 if the employment outlook shows sustainable improvement (i.e. unemployment rate reaches 6.5%) and these speculations caused investors’ confidence in gold to erode. It seems the prospect that the Federal Reserve's tone will remain dovish until the spring is good for major stock exchanges but not for gold at the moment.

On the weekly, daily and 4-hour time frames, the XAU/USD pair is trading below the Ichimoku clouds and that means the outlook for gold is still tough. Although technical formation on charts suggests there is still some room for the pair to sink in the long run, intra-day traders should watch the 1306 and 1326 levels. If the bulls manage to hold prices above the 1306.05 support level, we could see a rebound towards 1326. Breaking through this resistance level might change the short-term outlook and give the bulls extra power they need to tackle the 1335.92 - 1345 zone.

 
In order to dominate the market, the bulls will have to push prices above the 1356 level. However, if the American dollar gets a boost from the upcoming fundamentals and the pair successfully breaks below the 1306 level, we could move back to 1293. A daily close below 1293 would confirm that the bears are firmly in control.
 
Comments | Posted in Blog By Jamie Cohen

PRECIOUS-Gold hovers near 5-week high as Fed policy meeting looms

Tuesday, October 29, 2013 10:58:27 AM America/Toronto

Reporting by A. Ananthalakshmi; Editing by Joseph Radford

SINGAPORE, Oct 28 (Reuters) - Gold was hovering near five-week highs on Monday as traders bet the U.S. Federal Reserve would stick with its bullion-friendly stimulus measures at a policy meeting later this week.

FUNDAMENTALS

* Spot gold had eased 0.3 percent to $1,348.44 an ounce by 0010 GMT, after posting a near 3-percent gain the week before. 

* Fed officials are unlikely to make any shift in monetary policy this week and will continue to buy back bonds at an $85 billion monthly rate as they wait for more evidence of how badly Washington's budget battle has hurt the U.S. economy.

* The central bank's policy-setting committee is to release a statement on its decision on Wednesday, at the end of its two-day meeting.

* Turkey and Kazakhstan raised their gold holdings in September, while Russia's bullion reserves eased, according to the International Monetary Fund. 

* SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, said its holdings fell 4.50 tonnes to 872.02 tonnes on Friday. 

Comments | Posted By Jamie Cohen

Shutdown, Debt Ceiling Prompt A Gold Market Sell-Off And Rebound?

Wednesday, October 2, 2013 9:50:40 AM America/Toronto

By: Tim Lacono | October 2, 2013

Precious metals are staging an impressive rebound today after yesterday's drubbing that, once again, was initiated by a massive sell order that caused prices to plunge and stop loss orders to be executed, exacerbating the decline.

This came at the market open, after the government had shut down at midnight the night before, and was not the response that most gold (GLD) investors expected. For reasons detailed here a week ago, a government shutdown and a looming debt ceiling crisis should clearly have been bullish for gold, but that was not the case yesterday in the opening minutes of trading.

Frank Tang at Reuters reported that "an unusually large trade in the New York futures market" played a key role in the early morning carnage yesterday as depicted in red in the Kitco graphic below.

Comments | Posted in Blog By Jamie Cohen

LBMA CEO Sees Record Interest in 'Good Delivery' Approval

Tuesday, October 1, 2013 10:02:00 AM America/Toronto

Dow Jones & Company, Inc. | October 1, 2013

The number of gold and silver refiners seeking the London Bullion Market Association's official stamp of approval for "good delivery" is at record levels, driven largely by increased scrutiny on the ethical sourcing of precious metals, the LBMA's chief executive said Tuesday.  

Comments | Posted By Jamie Cohen

Gold Inventories at COMEX Decrease by 36%

Wednesday, September 11, 2013 10:39:37 AM America/Toronto

To date this year, gold inventories at the COMEX have dropped by more than 36% which means the COMEX is holding the least amount of gold it has in the past 9 years.  The inventories are down from about 11 million ounces to 7 million ounces.

What does this all mean?

It is definitely in line with what is happening in the physical market.  The supplies are tight, the market is in backwardation and it is likely that the premiums will rise soon considering all of the above.  On top of that we are entering a strong seasonal pattern for gold and silver.

Comments | Posted By Jamie Cohen

U.S. jobs report weak-gold and silver up

Friday, September 6, 2013 11:05:27 AM America/Toronto

This morning the Labour department reported that the U.S. economy added fewer jobs than expected for the month of August 2013. More important is the significant downward revisions in the non-farm payrolls for the summer months of June and July. Shock :-)

With the U.S. threat to attack Syria in the back of everyone’s mind, the prices of gold and silver have rebounded significantly from overnight weakness. Reports out of Asia are that there is extremely strong demand for gold and silver coins.

Comments | Posted By Jamie Cohen

Gold Bulls Increase Their Positions to the Highest in 9 Months

Thursday, September 5, 2013 2:40:43 PM America/Toronto

Although, physical buying of precious metals never backed off; money managers are finally waking up and putting money into gold and silver. Although, the catalyst might be the possibility of a Syria strike, gold and silver are showing higher lows and higher highs which is a very strong technical indicator.

Out of the 23 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg, 12 are bullish and 6 are neutral which is refreshing positive change for the precious metals sector.

Comments | Posted By Jamie Cohen

Toronto, ON 

Lead by Mike Stead, The Abundance Society help people build wealth with the tools, strategies, and techniques that are working right now. Joining Mike Stead is Danny Kroll from Canadian Bullion Services discussing about the ups and downs of the precious metals market.

In this interview, Danny Kroll gives his opinion on the dramatic decline of the gold and silver market and his thoughts on when the precious metals will reach a bottom. As the CEO of a precious metals investment firm, Danny also touches on the effects the market has on his business.

Another issue brought up during this interview was the reaction of physical precious metals investors to the current market situation.

This interview can be found on The Abundance Society website at http://theabundancesociety.com and YouTube.

About Canadian Bullion Services

Canadian Bullion Services is a precious metals dealer located in downtown Toronto. Its management has more than 50 years of financial services experience and one most respected names in the industry. Its superior customer service and competitive pricing is what places it among the top precious metals dealers in Canada. 
For more information visit http://www.canadianbullionservices.com or contact us at info@cbmetals.com if you are interested in adding precious metals to your portfolio.

 

Comments | Posted By Jamie Cohen

GOFO- You Don't Want to Miss This

Friday, July 19, 2013 11:50:50 AM America/Toronto

Gold Forward Offered Rates (GOFO) or the cost to borrow gold remains negative.

The lack of liquidity in the interbank London Good Delivery gold market (400 ounce gold bars) has pushed gold forward rates, known as “gofo”, into negative territory, meaning that gold for future delivery is trading at a discount to physical market prices – a rare situation that has occurred only after the Lehman Brothers collapse and near 
the bottom of the gold market in 1999.
 
The last time forwards were negative was in November 2008, when a scramble for physical 
gold led a sharp price rally of 46% from $682/oz to over $1,000/oz between October 2008 and February 2009.

Comments | Posted By Jamie Cohen

Explaining the Difference Between the Physical and Paper Market prices

Thursday, July 11, 2013 10:04:14 AM America/Toronto

 
For all of us who read about gold and silver prices, you have inevitably come across articles and commentaries regarding the differences in prices between the physical gold and silver market and the electronic (paper) prices. As you know the price of gold and silver you see on TV represents the “paper” market. The actual prices paid for real silver coins/silver bars and gold coins / gold bars represent the physical or “real” market. It’s similar to comparing the price of a barrel of crude oil to the price of gas at the pump. While the crude market makes good headlines, it’s the price at the pump that matters most to people who want to buy and use the real commodity. 
 
Let’s compare this to crude oil and the price at the pump, we all know that a drop in crude oil prices doesn’t necessarily lead to a decrease in prices at the gas station; the same idea can be applied to precious metals products. When the electronic/paper market prices decrease, it does not necessarily mean the ask price of gold and silver in the physical market are following suit.
Comments | Posted in Blog By Jamie Cohen